Forecasting and Compensation of Damage Caused by Forest Fires in Siberia. V. V. Lesnykh, N. V. Abasov, and T. V. Berezhnykh, Energy Systems Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia, 664033, Irkutsk, Lermontov St. 130, e-mail Lesnykh@isem.sei.irk.ru
Irkutsk region possesses enormous forest resources - about 13% of forest reserves of Russia. The total area of the forest resources makes up 92.2% of the territory of the region. Mature forest reserves reach 5.32 billion m3 i.e. up to 95 thousand m3 per capita. At the same time the forests of the region are characterised by high burning rate. Duration of the fire risk period is about 170 days. From 300 to 3000 fires take place yearly covering the total area from 4 to 600 thousand ha.
Analysis of statistical data allows one to distinguish a number of factors that affect spreading of forest fires in the region. The studies show that the number of fires and their area correlates with summer air temperatures, precipitations and water content indexes of Lake Baikal and tributaries of the Angara river.
The paper shows the possibility to estimate the number and total area of fires using information-prognostic system GIPSAR. The fire area range has been estimated for 1999.
The options of the regional system for compensation of damage caused by forest fires are suggested. It is showed that only quota-exceedent form of attracting insurance jointly with budget compensation enables one to compensate an essential part of the expected damage. The results of forecast of frequency and total area of fires allow one to increase the amount of damage to be compensated at the expense of insurance.
Go to . . .
1999 SRA-Europe Table of Contents
1999 SRA-Europe Author Index
Main Abstracts Menu Page
RiskWorld Home Page