The Forming of Risk Indices Totality with Hierarchical Structure. Farit M. Akhmedjanov, Senior Researcher, Ph.D., Ufa State Aviation Technical University, 12 K.Marx Street, Ufa, Bashkortostan, 450000, Russia, telephone +7 34 72 22 74 65, fax + 7 34 72 23 52 53, e-mail farit@conver.bashkiria.su; Rustem Z. Khamitov, Ph.D., Bashkortostan Republic Minister for Extremal Situations; and Igor I. Kovalenko, Associate Professor, Ph.D., Ufa State Aviation Technical University
The research activity which concerns the development of regional systems for industrial risk management causes today the necessity to choose a totality of informative cost functions allowing to observe the real state of the population security. So the problem of such totality forming with respect to its perspective utilization in the framework of closed-loop system with different control institutions participation attracts attention of many investigators.
The present paper describes the authors' experience regarding the forming of interconnected risk indices (RI) oriented towards their application to the industrial accidents hazard assessment and population security level management in the Republic of Bashkortostan (one of the Republics inside Russia with high concentration of petrochemical and oil-refining enterprises, oil and gas pipelines, etc.).
The main idea is to construct risk indices totality as composition with strict hierarchical structure.
The upper level of this structure is represented by IR which can be directly used in the decision making process. The indices above mentioned look as vectors including the probabilities of accidents possible scenarios and the correspondent consequences. In turn the consequences include three kinds of estimations: the number of probable deathes, the number of people to be injured and the financial equivalent of damage to be expected.
The intermediate level is constructed of RI characterizing separate types of hazardous factors influence measures. The chemical danger, radioactive contamination, the interruption of human being provision are among the factors which are taken into account by these RI introduction.
At last the lower level is formed of the indices concerned with concrete technological processes, the masses and the types of substances, the numbers of devices with radioactive components, etc.
The authors consider all the levels interaction and propose the tools for the analysis of correspondence between RI from different parts of that hierarchical structure. It is shown that such multi-level risk indices assessment can be very fruitful for the possibility to obtain acceptable results in the regional management of population security.
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