Forecasting the Disaster Risk by Probabilistic Analysis of Natural Phenomena. V. A. Akimov, Moscow, Russia
For management of natural risks at urbanized areas long-term forecasting and emergencies is required. However, the efficiency of solutions taken in the process of management substantially depends on prognostic accuracy. To improve the accuracy, together with the statistical data on reiteration of natural phenomena, mathematical models are to be applied. It is quite obvious that the dependence of parameters whose deviation from the standard values characterize the intensity of the natural phenomenon on the time period can be considered to be the conditions for implementation for a sufficiently long period of time, the intensity of adverse natural phenomena at a certain location can be calculated. However, the accuracy of frequency assessment of seldom-occurring extreme natural phenomena is low, the latter resulting in insufficient accuracy of disaster forecasting. Modelling of adverse natural phenomena as a throw-out of randomized processes has been purpose. By assessing the realization of a natural phenomenon, its correlation function and spectral density can be determinated. These characteristics make it possible to calculate the mathematical expectation of the number of adverse natural phenomena for the pre-set period as we; as the function of distribution of their amplitudes. The distribution of adverse natural phenomena in time and by their throw-out amplitudes has been studied. Exceeding of the stability of technological entities by the throw-out amplitudes at urbanized territories can result in essential consequences for the population of the above adverse natural phenomenon to disaster.
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