Quantitative Risk Assessment for Veterinary Fluoroquinolones on Campylobacter in Beef. S. A. Anderson, R. M. Yeaton-Woo, and L. M. Crawford, Georgetown University Center for Food and Nutrition Policy, Washington DC; and L. M. Barraj and B. J. Petersen, Novigen Sciences, Inc., Washington DC
Our risk assessment employed a novel application of Monte Carlo methodology to analyze emerging antibiotic resistance in humans. Specifically, we evaluated the therapeutic uses of fluoroquinolones (FQs) in meat-producing cattle, which may lead to the development of FQ-resistant Campylobacter. These organisms may be transmitted to humans through the food supply and cause illness. We developed a quantitative risk assessment (1) to estimate the risk of Campylobacter infection associated with the consumption of fresh beef and ground beef, and (2) to analyze the potential risks to human health posed by FQ-resistant Campylobacter. The quantitative study begins with beef product in the retail display case. Data from a variety of sources were assembled into the model as predictors of the prevalence and quantity of Campylobacter in specific types of beef. The consequences of exposure to Campylobacter are infection, illness, hospitalization, or even death. Using Monte Carlo analysis we estimated that fewer than 20,000 individuals in the U.S. may be infected by Campylobacter derived from both ground beef and fresh beef sources. We further predicted the probability of adverse consequences arising from both Campylobacter and FQ-resistant Campylobacter and these will be discussed in detail.
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