Risk Management of Social Shocks. K. Atoyev, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine
The computer technology is created to work out optimal social policy minimizing risk of social shocks. It is based on mathematical methods of data analysis, theory of optimization, theory of catastrophes, cost-benefit analysis. The tasks of work were: 1) determination of measures necessary for support of appropriate level of social security of citizens (SSC); 2) analysis of various scripts of realization of reforms in post-totalitarian countries; 3)cost-benefit analysis for ranking various measures which are included in these scripts. The purpose is formulated as follows: to determine dynamics of changes of the economic, financial, social, political characteristics of a society ensuring duly transformation of dividends, obtained from realization of reforms in such social programs, which would allow to brake growth of social intensity, caused by realization of reforms. With the help of developed computer technology the accounts of dynamics of change of social intensity for a number of countries of East Europe and Ukraine are carried out. The obtained results are used for ranking the mentioned above countries on a degree of risk of investments in their development. The results were utilized for estimation of efficiency of various ways of normalization of economic and social situation when East-European countries integrate into the European community. The computer technology allows to obtain the objective estimation of social efficiency of various measures on reforming the system of economic, financial, political, acquisitive, legal and other ratios is especially important for the countries with transition economy.
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