Comparative Risk Analysis of Health Consequences Caused by Contaminated Environment. A. A. Bykov, I. A. Pronina, and E. V. Kuljova, International Institute of Risk Research, Eropkinsky pereulok, Moscow, Russia
Generalised probabilistic approach for analysing health consequences caused by various exposure factors is observed. Formally basing on the competitive risk theory, it introduces generalised risk index in terms of weighted life time shortening. Approach of this kind gives the opportunities of taking into account time delay of impact and consequence manifestation; easy comparisons of exposure factors with different nature and various consequences (morbidity and mortality, carcinogenic and genetic and other kinds); social and environmental components in overall mortality. Russian demography and environmental data were used as an example for comparative risk analysis of this kind. It was made an attempt to characterise the dynamical tendencies and to describe evolution of introduced generalised risk index. The prospects of the above mentioned probabilistic approach and the results obtaining on its basis for procedure of decision making, setting priorities and action planning are discussed. It is shown that comparative risk analysis play a key role in policy making and conclusions made on its basis can be used in legislation and insurance.
Work supported by Russian Fund for Fundamental Researches under the project 99-06-80016.
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