Predictive Bayesian Assessment of Reported and Unreported Injuries to Municipal Solid Waste Workers. J. D. Englehardt, H. An, J. A. Bean, L. E. Fleming, and M. Danits, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL
Workers’ Compensation claim rates for death and injury among municipal solid waste (MSW) collectors are among the highest for any occupation, although a large proportion of injuries are neither reported nor compensated, and actual injury rates are unknown. This paper demonstrates the use of predictive Bayesian methods to assess actual numbers of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries to Florida MSW workers, including unreported and uncompensated injuries. Injuries requiring more than a single administration of first aid were considered. Available data included Florida Workers’ Compensation data, and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) 200 logs of reported injuries at a MSW collection facility in Florida. Subjective input by the epidemiological team was based on a comprehensive review of 165 peer-reviewed articles, including worker surveys. An analytically-derived predictive Bayesian version of the negative binomial distribution was used, based on the Poisson distribution. The approach (a) avoids computation, (b) allows rigorous use of professional judgment, and (c) supports decisions reflecting the full range of possible confidence levels in subjective information. The expected number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries was assessed at 4600 annually, or 51 injuries per 100 workers per year, accounting for variability and uncertainty. Results imply that each year up to half of all MSW workers may expect injury. A 5% probability of more than 82 musculoskeletal or dermal injuries occurring per 100 MSW workers during any year was assessed. The method offers a way to estimate rates of total reported and unreported injuries, to motivate programs to reduce human suffering and loss.
This work was supported by the Florida Center for Solid and Hazardous Waste Management.
Go to . . .
1999 SRA Table of Contents
1999 SRA Author Index
Main Abstracts Menu Page
RiskWorld Home Page