Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability. H. C. Frey, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
In recent years there has been increasing attention and effort devoted to distinguishing and characterizing variability and uncertainty in exposure assessment. A variety of techniques, including two-dimensional probabilistic simulation methods, have been demonstrated for this purpose. In this talk, we briefly review such methods and consider their applicability to problems involving characterization of aggregate exposures and exposures among different population groups. Variability refers to real differences in exposure among different members of a population, whereas uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding true exposures for any individual or for any estimated distribution of variability. The implications of both variability and uncertainty for identifying the most significant exposures within an aggregate, comparing exposures to different population groups, and identifying and prioritizing key sources of uncertainty will be addressed. Simple conceptual case studies will be presented to illustrate the use of and insights from two-dimensional methods applied to these types of exposure estimation problems, with a focus on the policy significance of these methods.
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