Birth Weight As a Predictor of Toxicant-Induced Changes in Infant Mortality Test With the Effects of Cigarette Smoking. A. Makri and D. B. Hattis, Marsh Institute, Clark University, Worcester, MA
Infant mortality is strongly related to both babies weight and estimated gestational age at birth. In the late 1980s a hypothesis was proposed that toxicant-induced changes in birth weight, inferred from observations of effects on fetal weight in animals, could be used to make projections of possible implications of toxicant exposures for the serious endpoint of infant mortality. Mechanistically, this requires an assumption that reduced birth weight is a reasonable indicator of incomplete development of functions (e.g., neurological, immunological) that are important in protecting human infants through the first year of life. The analysis reported here tests the predictive accuracy of the human portion of this pathway. Cigarette smoking affects infant mortality and also has appreciable effects on birth weight and the fraction of babies who are born at relatively early gestational ages. U.S. national data from 1990 is used to compare the observed effect of various amounts of reported smoking on infant mortality with the infant mortality changes that would be expected on the basis of relationships between birth weight, prematurity, and infant mortality among mothers who do not report having smoked during pregnancy.
Supported by a grant from the U.S. EPA.
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