Assessment and Management of the Flood Risk. S. G. Mironyuk, and L. Yu, Shcheviev Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia, and Production & Research Institute for Engineering Construction Survey (PNIIIS), Russian Ministry of Construction, Moskow, Russia
In the last few years floods, hurricanes and other natural hazards have had a severe impact on the economy of the states and caused a lot of victims amongst the population. In Russia the area of floods reaches 400 thousand square kilometers, that amounts to 2.5% of the territory of the country, thus creating the threat for 750 cities. When preparing regional protection charts it is necessary to solve the problem of the optimization of protection, i.e. to find such amounts of capital investments in carrying out engineering-protection measures that do not exceed the value of impact caused by natural hazards and their consequences. This problem may be solved by the way of plotting the risk management function. The function, for example for the case of compiling an antiflood protection chart, will represent a dependence of the following type: R - f(ÄH), where R = P(H)<Title>D(H), where R is the risk of damaging a territory (in US$), P(H) is the repeatability of hazardous level of water, D(H) is the damage (in US$), ÄH is the raising of territory marks (in meters). Simultaneous plotting of dependences C(ÄH) and R(ÄH), where C is the capital investment, makes it possible to determine the value of ÄH at which the capital investment is numerically equal to the risk. It should be noted that the proposed method of the optimization of protection helps to solve a complicated problem pertaining to the choice of the statistical assessment. This assessment is taken into account by the designers when they prepare charts of antiflood protection - 1% frequency level.
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