Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Dependent Engineered Systems and Application to Unmanned Space Missions. M. E. Paté-Cornell and R. Dillon, Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (Risk Analysis), Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4024
Existing methods of programmatic risk analysis focus mostly on the risk of exceeding budget and schedule (management failure risk) for specific projects. However, in the development of critical engineered systems, such as space missions, the reliability also matters. Given a fixed project budget, there is often a tradeoff between the probabilities of a management failure and of a technical failure. In addition, there are often dependencies among projects within programs, so that management decisions regarding one project must be made considering all affected projects. We developed a probabilistic model that was developed to handle at the same time the management risks and the technical failure risks considering project dependencies. This model and an application to the management of Faster-Better-Cheaper unmanned space missions will be presented.
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