Risk Assessment by Distribution of Hazardous Events As a Function of Time and Damage. B. V. Potapov, V. A. Akimov, and Y. L. Vorobiev, EMERCOM of Russia, Moskow, Russia
The basic factors affecting the risk value have been discussed and their interrelation has been setup. The latter makes it possible to improve the accuracy of assessing the risk of random-occurring extreme events (disasters, catastrophes) lying within the "range" of distribution of hazardous events as a function of damage by simultaneous use of the statistical method and the probabilistic method. It has been demonstrated that hazardous events for certain geographic, natural, national, cultural and socio-economic conditions are characterised by the mathematical expectation of hazardous events and their distribution as a function of damage. A succession of hazardous events in time is also characterised by certain probabilistic laws. Both frequency and distribution of hazardous events as a function of damage depend on time in general. Knowledge of the basic objective regularities of the above processes provides to estimate and forecast the mathematical expectation of the number of seldom-occurring extreme events that can call forth substantial damage, the statistical assessment of which being impossible. Classification of hazardous events as a function of damage in multidimensional space of damage parameters has been discussed. The methodology for recalculation of the risk of events with low damage that occur rather frequently and that are therefore estimated with low statistic uncertainty, to the risk of events that occur seldom and bring about substantial damage has been described. The obtained results can be used to improve the accuracy of forecasting extreme emergencies (natural disasters and technological accidents) in risk management.
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