Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 1999 Annual Meeting

Applying Engineering Models to Pathogen Control in the Beef Slaughter Plants. T. R. Roberts, Economic Research Service, USDA, Washington, DC; and M. Modarres, Reliability Engineering Program, Center for Technology, Risk Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

Both the United States Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration have recently instituted Hazard Analysis at Critical Control Points (HACCP) systems for pathogen control in meat, poultry and seafood plants. Estimates of the impact of HACCP depend on estimates of the probability distribution of pathogens before and after various public and private interventions. Engineers in the nuclear and aerospace industries have developed probabilistic risk assessment models to answer these types of questions. The focus of this paper is on model structure and identification and quantification of the critical processing, equipment, live animal inputs, and human elements within a beef slaughter plant. Variability and uncertainty are examined as well as data needs to document the critical events in the logic model.


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