Evaluation of Probabilities of Cancer Causation from Radionuclides Released to the Clinch River. B. A. Thomas, F. O. Hoffman, K. M. Thiessen, and A. I. Apostoaei, SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN; and S. L. Simon, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC
This study presented and demonstrated a methodology for the calculation of doses and potential risks of cancer incidence for specific individuals from exposure to radionuclides released to the Columbia River from the Hanford facilities. This methodology incorporated age-, gender-, and organ-specificity of dose and risk factors as well as individual-specific values for exposure parameters. Results are given in terms of (a) the doses and excess relative risks to specified organs or tissues and (b) the probability of cancer causation (P.C.) for individuals actually diagnosed with cancer. Parameters such as location, year of birth, age at first exposure, age at diagnosis, ingestion rates, hold-up times, and combinations of pathways can be defined for each individual. Results from example calculations are included to show the types of results that can be produced by the methodology as well as the magnitudes of doses and risks calculated for plausible reference individuals. All results are expressed in terms of a 90% subjective confidence interval obtained through the use of Monte Carlo techniques.
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