Risk Analysis of Emergencies for Region’s Population. A. Yelokhin, Krasnya Presnya str., Moscow, Russia; and O. Bodrikov, S. Ulianov, and V. Glebov, Davydkovskaya, Moscow, Russia
The purpose of work was: development methods for risk analysis of emergencies for region’s population. As complex parameters of risk in work are examined:
The model is based on the construction of event trees, and possible measures on risk lowering are taken into consideration in this case. This model was approved during the risk assessment for Novgorod region’s population.
Novgorod region is situated in the north-west European part of Russian Federation.
As the carried-out calculations showed, the death-roll on the Novgorod region’s territory can vary from a few people to several thousands. According to these calculations, the death of three men a year is awaited. These deaths are considered to be caused by the small accidents on industrial objects and transport accidents. Simultaneous death of several thousand people is an extremely rare event for the population of the Novgorod region.
The frequency of such event makes 1.10-7 up to 1.10-8, 1/year, and its realization can be connected only with a big accident on industrial object. The greatest threat to territory of the Novgorod area represent (on a parameter "loss of property") floods described by regularity and big loss of property.
The researches served as a basis for decision making of improving the regional emergency response system.
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