Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1999 Annual Meeting

Considering Environmental Harm: Qualitative and Semi-Quantitative Treatment in Strategic Risk Assessment. Simon J. T. Pollard, Risk Analysis Manager, Raquel Duarte-Davidson, Roger Yearsley and Gareth Llewellyn, National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal Environment Agency Steel House, 11 Tothill Street, London, SW1H 9NF, telephone 0171 664 6832, fax 0171 664 6836, e-mail simon.pollard@environment-agency.gov.uk; and John Steele, RPS Clouston, Steventon, Oxford, UK

The conventional expression of environmental harm has been the environmental quality standard. This has generally served environmental regulators well at the site-specific level in providing clear objectives for industry and other regulated groups to follow. At the strategic level, however, where data is often either sparse, or conversely, too voluminous to utilise, coarser risk assessment tools are often required to inform decisions on the prioritisation of regulatory effort.

We present the results of the Agency's preliminary work on a semi-quantitative strategic risk assessment tool for, among other applications, the prioritisation of Local Environment Agency Plans (LEAPS). The architecture of the model is explained with respect to the criteria for environmental harm adopted. Demonstrating a 'proof of concept' for the tool, the prioritisation of key environmental issues in different Agency Regions is also presented for the freshwater environment.

Related qualitative work on the key attributes of environmental harm (spatial extent, reversibility, uncertainty, latency, foreseeability, for example) is presented alongside the ranking tool. Experience in the use of this treatment, incorporating financial and social attributes alongside physical descriptors is presented.


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