Health Benefits Associated With Nox/Voc Reductions In Ontario, Canada. D. D. Ager, X. Lin, P. M. Selorio, and R. P. Lyng, Ontario Power Technologies and Ontario Power Generation Inc.
In response to concerns about the health effects of ozone in Canada, a NOx/VOC management plan was proposed by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). The first phase of the three-phase program called for 25% reductions in NOx and VOC emissions. The goal of the present study was to predict the health benefits expected to be associated with this initiative. For this analysis, a base case scenario was chosen to correspond to the original emissions inventory for a regional ozone episode that occurred during the first week of August, 1988. Two additional scenarios were chosen to represent 25% reductions in NOx and VOC emissions, respectively, from both point sources and area sources in Ontario. Hourly ozone concentrations were predicted for 626 grids within Ontario (21 km resolution) using the MC2/ADOM regional air modelling system. Daily ozone metrics (1-h maximum, 8-h average) and current population levels were identified for each grid location. Human health effects were predicted for a variety of endpoints including: mortality, respiratory hospital admissions, emergency room visits for asthma, minor restricted activity days, and acute respiratory symptom days. The influence of different ozone metrics on predicted health impacts was assessed. Final results of the analysis will be presented.
Project funded by Ontario Power Generation Inc.
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