The Risk-Dose Assessment of Radiation Impact on Organism. K. L. Atoyev, V. G. Bebeshko, and L. A. Yanenko, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine
The mathematical models for assessment of health risk and therapy efficacy were carried out to determine the "- dose"dependence under various reserves of immune and blood-formation systems. The valuation of disease risk was carried out by means of the theory of smooth functions, enabling to determine critical values of parameters characterizing these systems functioning. A measure of risk is a degree of proximity to these critical values. The mathematical models allow forecasting the dynamics of immune system changes on stage, when there are not yet visible indications of pathology development. It is connected with that we use the model calculations for determination of different control system synchronization. Synchronization disturbances precede the changes of clinical parameters that warn about disease. So, the degree of control system synchronization more exactly characterizes the organism state than levels of separate clinical parameters. With the help developed software the numerical accounts were carried out to determine the "- dose" dependence for patients irradiated after low dose action. For each of selection the account of dependence "- dose" is carried out on doze interval 0-200 sGy. The results of these accounts permit to determine individualized values of acceptable dozes of an irradiation, at which the risk of irreversible changes in an organism does not surpass the acceptable value. The individuality of accounts is determined by immunological and hematological parameters of the patient describing his reserve possibilities. The results of model experiments show the progressive falling of immune system reserves under radiation impact. Levels of reserves before radiation action determine the immune response dynamic.
Work supported by The Ukrainian Ministry of Emergencies under contract 17/13H-99.03.
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