An Integrated Modeling and Mesocosm Framework for Assessing Ecological Risks Posed by Multiple Stressors in the Patuxent River Watershed. S. M. Bartell, The Cadmus Group, Inc.
An integrated monitoring-modeling-experimental approach has been developed to assess the potential ecological impacts and risks posed by anticipated changes in land use in the Patuxent River watershed. This large scale, spatially-oriented methodology links empirical models of water quality and quantity of runoff from agricultural, forest, and urban landscapes with process models that translate runoff of nitrogen, phosphorus, copper, cadmium, and arsenic to probable impacts on the ecological production dynamics in the Patuxent River and estuary. The empirical spatial runoff models are linked with a two-dimensional water quality model of the entire Patuxent River. The transport and fate of nutrients and contaminants simulated by this model provide spatial-temporal inputs to bioenergetics-based, ecological models that estimate the combined impacts of nutrients and metals on plankton, benthic invertebrates, forage fish (e.g., bay anchovy) and striped bass. The ecological models have also been used in combination with experimental marine mesocosms to develop the necessary exposure-response relationships for multiple stressors. The linked modeling spatial assessment methodology emphasizes probabilistic ecological risk estimation and uncertainty analyses implemented in an adaptive resource management and assessment framework.
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