Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2000 Annual Meeting

ADS-IDAcrew: An Integrated System for Performing Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Y. H. Chang and A. Mosleh, University of Maryland

The ADS-IDACrew (Accident Dynamic Simulator with IDACrew as the crew model) is an integrated dynamic probabilistic simulation tool developed especially for simulating the interactions among operating crew and the complex system. The simulation results give the scenarios progression information in detail. The information also can be used to identify the human errors as well as their root causes. Six modules are included in the Ads-IDACrew: — PCrew Module: uses IDACrew operating crew cognitive behavior model to represent problem-solving and decision-making behavior of three types of operators (decision maker, action taker, and consultant) — PSystem Module: models the system behavior — PIndicator Module: models the controller, indicators, alarms etc. in the control room — PComponent Failure Module: calculates the component and instrument failure probabilities in the System Module and Indicator Module. — PScheduler Module: coordinates above four modules to perform the simulation. The simulation results are represented by a discrete dynamic event tree(D-DET). The D-DET starts from an initiating event, and generates branches whenever the system or operator change state (e.g. a component failure or operator execution of a procedural step). This leads to many different accident scenarios in a single D-DET. — PUser Interface Module: provides graphical user interface for setting initial condition and examining the results.

A simplified four-loop steam generator feed water system is used as the example system to show the capabilities of this Dynamic PRA tool. The results show how ADS can be used in the study of operator errors particularly errors of commission.


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