Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2000 Annual Meeting

Assessing the Probability of Polluting Events Associated With the Shipment of Waste. V. A. Colten-Bradley, J. Turim, and A. Haugo, Sciences International

U.S. Department of Transportation data for large trucks and barges were examined to determine the frequency of accidents and the potential for polluting events associated with the transportation of waste. Approximately 2% of the truck accidents in the United States involve garbage trucks. The national large-truck accident rate is 2.1 E-6 accidents/ton-mile/yr, which is comparable to the observed accident rate involving shipment of hazardous waste of 1.5 E-06 accidents/ton-mile/yr (470 accidents/yr nationally 1994-1998). Highway accidents involving municipal solid waste (MSW) or hazardous materials are generally quickly addressed by local response teams. Consequently, pollution from these materials would not be expected to occur except under rare circumstances. The observed national accident rate involving freight barges which carry MSW is 1 E-09 accidents/ton-mile/yr (1250 accidents nationally 1996-1997) with a polluting event rate of 0.006/accident. Thus, the potential for a polluting event associated with the release of MSW into surface waters is on the order of one event every 300 years.


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