Decision Analysis of Lake Erie Fisheries Management Under Lower Trophic Level Uncertainties. B. F. Hobbs, J. K. Kim, J. F. Koonce, A. B. Locci, and R. A. Anderson; The Johns Hopkins University, and Case Western Reserve University
The productivity of Lake Erie is an inherent constraint to management of its fisheries. The recent zebra mussel invasion has increased scientific uncertainty over how the Lake ecosystem would respond to changed nutrient inputs and fisheries regulation. These uncertainties can have important implications for management decisions such as gear regulations, allowable harvests, and phosphorus loadings. In two workshops, fisheries experts from the Great Lakes Fisheries Commission explored how decision analysis and ecosystem modeling might be useful for evaluating the relevance of uncertainty to fisheries management, and for estimating the value of additional research into the effects of nutrient loads and zebra mussels. Alternative hypotheses regarding the Lake Erie lower trophic level response to P inputs and zebra mussels were implemented in LEEM (the Lake Erie Ecological Model). Then alternative research efforts were defined and their possible conclusions characterized. Finally, the potential value of information from that research for improving fisheries management was estimated using multicriteria Bayesian decision analysis models. The presentation will report on the conclusions made by the experts and the results of the decision analysis, emphasizing the sensitivity of management decisions to the ecological uncertainties.
Work supported by USEPA Star Grant R825150.
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