Thyroid Cancer Risk in Ukrainian Children Exposured by the Chernobyl Accident. V. M. Shpak, I. A. Kairo, T. I. Bogdanova, N. V. Kartashov, and I. A. Likhtarev; Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute, and Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute
Data on thyroid cancer incidence in children aged 0-9 years in 1986 exposed to 131I from Chernobyl accident in 6 North regions of Ukraine are analysed using different models risk over time. Basic data sets in this study include: number of persons in one year age cohorts for each districts (about 1.2 million persons per year), thyroid cancer cases for period 1986-1997 georeferenced by place of residence in May - June, 1986; average for district per capita estimates of thyroid doses. A mathematical model was developed to assess the region specific baseline incidence, and also to take into account screening effect. For two age at exposure groups (0-4 and 5-9 years) gender specific estimates of excess absolute and relative risk of thyroid cancer have been obtained. The uncertainties in risk estimates based on Monte-Carlo technique and bootstrap procedure are compared. Main source of uncertainty in risk estimates was indicated as uncertainties of dose estimates.
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