Can Qualitative Risk Analyses Be Used for Management of Microbial Food Safety Issues - Apple Juice As an Example. E. C. D. Todd, W. Ross, A. Hughes, and D. Oudit, Health Canada
Ideally, the effectiveness of available Risk Management options is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA). However, in many cases data gaps are many, and time constraints are so stringent, that QRAs cannot reasonably be considered. Even so, in some cases sufficient structure can be given to the risk decision-making problem so that subjective, or qualitative methods can be applied to yield risk based rankings of proposed risk mitigation strategies. Currently, there are no qualitative models available in the food microbiology area. An example is worked through for the assessment and management of apple juice. For example, if a food safety objective (FSO) is established as the absence of E. coli O157:H7 in 125 ml of apple juice (a single serving), can the current production operations achieve this objective without pasteurization? A qualitative assessment shows that even if there is a low probability of E. coli O157:H7 being present in servings, the FSO cannot be achieved in all situations without some control. Seven management options were considered to reduce the probability of illness of E. coli O157:H7 from consumption of unpasteurized juice. A qualitative approach can be taken to rank these in order of effectiveness and impact. In an example, the 7 options were scored for reduction of disease, likelihood of compliance, cost to industry, cost to government, effect on sales, and consumer preference with values in terms of high, medium, and low, and a numerical consideration of the degree of certainty.
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