Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2000 Annual Meeting

Management of Megapolis Economy Reforming. V. M. Yanenko, V. N. Pshenichny, V. A. Babinets, and K. L. Atoyev, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine

The computer technology (CT) is developed for decision of municipal economy problems. It allows the following task solution: 1) the quantitative cost-benefit analysis; 2) forecasting of efficiency of the various scripts of municipal economy reforming and their long-term consequences; 3) maximization of the incomes of the municipal budget and quality of life at minimization of the losses from emergencies of ecological, technogenic and sociogenic origin; 4) development of the recommendations on increase of ecological, technogenic and sociogenic safety of the megapolis; 5) realizations of ecology-economic expertise of the projects of city development. CT includes also geo-information systems and databases of urban infrastructure and ecological monitoring. In the work the efficiency of means redistribution between main items of the municipal budget is calculated with the help of developed software on the base of solution of minimax tasks of optimum control. CT was utilized for decision of problems, connected with increasing of population social security requires cardinal change of fundamental bases of control of municipal economy: stimulation of ecologically clean manufactures, creation of conditions for development of small business, changes in tax policy, changes of property forms, change of politics-administrative fragmentation etc. The solution of these tasks requires the definitions of optimal dynamics of the economic, financial and social changes of the megapolis. That provides duly transformation of the dividends received from realization of reforms into social programs, which will allow to brake growth of social intensity caused by their realization.

Work Supported by the Ministry of Ukraine of Emergencies Under Contract 17/13H-99.03.


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