Probabilistic Codes/Models and Parameter Selection for Dose Impact Analysis in Nuclear Waste Management and Decommissioning. R. Abu-Eid and M. Thaggard, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, MD
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a variety of codes/models for use in performance assessment in the waste management arena and in site decommissioning for demonstration of compliance with the dose criteria, promulgated in 10 CFR Part 20, Subpart E, for license termination. Deterministic screening and site-specific codes/models with deterministic input parameters were initially used. More recently, in response to the Commission direction for adoption of a risk-informed performance based approaches in regulatory risk analysis, the staff developed probabilistic models/codes and probabilistic approaches for selection of input parameters. Screening models/codes are inherently simple and conservative due use of bounding conservative assumptions accounting for all common radionuclides and for generic site conditions across the US. Therefore, they may be useful for simple sites with surficial contamination. Probabilistic screening models/codes using specific radionuclide parameters have proven to be more appropriate than generic screening codes. Probabilistic site-specific codes/models are more appropriate to use, particularly for sites having volumetric contamination as well as those with groundwater or surface water contamination. NRC staff has adopted a specific dose modeling and decision framework methodology for screening and site-specific analyses. Criteria for establishing conceptual models, for ranking of parameters, for selection and modification of parameters, and probabilistic analysis for selection of the peak dose for compliance will be discussed.
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