The Harvard BSE Risk Assessment - Uses and Applications. S. A. Anderson, US Department of Agriculture
The Harvard BSE Risk Assessment is a comprehensive "farm-to-fork" analysis that evaluates the effectiveness of current measures in preventing BSE from entering or occurring in the United States. Included in the study are the potential pathways by which BSE could emerge in the U.S. The pathways of exposure to the BSE agent that were evaluated include potential cattle exposure through BSE-contaminated feed on the farm and potential human exposure through BSE-contaminated beef products. A mathematical simulation model was used to characterize key pathways for exposure to BSE infectivity to arrive at estimates of risk to the U.S. cattle population and potential exposure to the human population under specific scenarios. The risk assessment will be a valuable tool in assessing the impacts of potential exposure, and in identifying data gaps and additional measures that will further reduce the risks associated with BSE. Uncertainties in estimates from the model arise from a lack of information and incomplete scientific knowledge requiring the use of many uncertain assumptions in the risk assessment. The uncertainty analysis in the BSE risk assessment identifies the contribution of key parameters to overall uncertainty and can provide insight into areas where additional research and resources might be directed to improve the estimates of exposure and risk. In addition to uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis or importance analysis was conducted to ascertain the influence of key parameters on the exposure and risk estimates. The results of varying several parameters and those parameters having the greatest effect on the overall exposure and risk will be discussed. We will also discuss the influence of improved compliance with current measures and additional policies on exposure and the risk estimates.
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