Epidemiological Risk Management in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development. K. L. Atoyev and Y. G. Slesarev, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, NTM Engineering
One of the most important task of modern epidemiology is the effective monitoring, forecasting and management of epidemiological situation and epidemiological risk assessment. Creation of information computer system (ICS) on the base of epidemiological software and methods of mathematical modeling are more effective strategy of above task solution. It is the important auxiliary tool for minimization of expenses on prevention of epidemic and liquidation their consequences. In this report the new approach to creation of computer technologies for epidemiological risk management and working out of effective ways of epidemic process assessment is presented .The catastrophe theory was used to research the epidemiological situation. The mathematical model of epidemiological system is elaborated. The risk value is determined by means of parameters, which characterize the state of: a) agents of diseases; b) population immune status and reserve possibilities; c) health care; d) environment. The main advantage of this approach is the determination of epidemiological risk dynamics as the function of dynamic variables of the investigated epidemiological system. On the base of this approach ICS is elaborated for epidemiological tasks solution. It includes the database of infectious diseases, software for basic biostatistics and epidemiological modeling. The distinctive feature of elaborated system is joining in technological gear software that allows the following dynamic and optimization tasks solution: 1) forecasting of infectious diseases arising and spreading; 2) risk assessment of epidemic arising and analyses of efficacy of carry out prophylactic measures; 3) decision making support for optimal measures elaboration, which permit to minimize the infectious diseases increase and spreading; 4) monitoring of epidemiological situation. On the base of elaborated ICS the analysis of different risk factors influencing epidemiological situation in Ukraine is done.
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