Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2001 Annual Meeting

Risk Management of Combustion Facilities Using a 2-D Microexposure Event Model. J. H. Samuelian, M. N. Gray, W. R. Alsop, B. H. Magee, and P. S. Price, AMEC Earth & Environmental

The draft guidance USEPA Region 6 released for assessing potential human health risks from hazardous waste combustion facilities is designed to be a screening protocol and has the potential for use, with modifications, to quantify risks from a wide variety of combustion facilities. Methods presented in the USEPA Region 6 guidance have herein been extended using the microexposure event model framework. Included is a two-dimensional component to quantify concurrent uncertainty and variability in potential carcinogenic risks from exposure to dioxin via direct soil pathways and indirect exposure pathways. Spatial and temporal variations in exposure were also integrated in the analyses. Hypothetical emission and deposition rates were used to estimate media concentrations over time to estimate risks to the population more realistically. Simultaneous quantitation of uncertainty and variability has direct application to the evaluation of risk management options for a combustion facility since it allows the risk manager to evaluate the risk across an entire potentially exposed population and also provides uncertainty bounds on these estimates. Furthermore, by incorporating a time-varying component in emission rates, the initial as well as any temporal decline in effectiveness of aging pollution control equipment can be incorporated from a risk perspective on a potentially exposed population.


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