Dynamic Model for BSE. B. Tameru, T. Habtemariam, D. Oryang, H. Abdelrahman, D. Nganwa, G. Gray, J. Cohen, S. Kreindel, A. Ahmed, L. Ayanwale, and V. Robnett, Tuskegee University
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, widely known as " cow disease," is a chronic, neurodegenerative disease. BSE belongs to the family of diseases known as the Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies caused by a transmissible agent, yet to be characterized. The loss of nearly 200,000 diseased cattle, followed by pre-emptive slaughter and destruction cattle more than 30 months of age, has crippled the British livestock industry and affected the tallow, gelatin, and pharmaceutical industries. No cases of BSE have been reported in the US, similar epidemic in the US would be even more catastrophic.
The most significant feature of TSEs is a prolonged incubation period of months to years. One of the transmission mechanisms is through ruminant to ruminant feed, thus the infectivity spread dynamically hence static model for BSE does not display how the infectivity spreads over time. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of BSE can help the medical/scientific community and policy makers to understand and anticipate the spread of this epidemic in different populations and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing the epidemic under control. An age and health status structured System Dynamic Analysis model for BSE is developed. This model assesses potential pathways for entry of TSE (including BSE) agents, into U.S. cattle and the U.S. food supply. To track the flow of animals, infectivity and the dynamics of the system at the population level, the model apportions the cattle population by animal use, by health status and by age. By making certain assumptions and scenarios, the number of future cases in different cohorts of cattle and their use is simulated. This model lead to virtual experiments whose real-world analogues would be expensive, dangerous, or even impossible.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Harvard University Center for Risk Analysis.
Go to . . .
2001 SRA Annual Meeting Table of Contents
2001 SRA Annual Meeting Author Index
Main Abstracts Menu Page
RiskWorld Home Page