Quantitative Risk Assessment of Salmonella Enteritidis Using a Dynamic Egg Production Model. H. A. Ahmad, T. Habtemariam, B. Tameru, D. Nganwa, and O. Ayanwale, Tuskeegee University
The cost of fighting the two to four million cases of salmonellosis every year in the US is between $600 million and $3.5 billion in terms of medical treatment, lost productivity, and loss of life. Shell eggs and their products have been implicated in about 80 percent of Salmonella enteritidis (SE) outbreaks. This is an alarming situation and needs urgent corrective measures. Egg production is a complex integrated process involving many subsystems and pathways that are potential source of SEintroduction. This research paper identifies the most critical pathways and proposes a dynamic risk assessment model that is an innovative addition to the present microbial risk assessment methodologies. We are developing the scenario tree and dynamic system model based upon the most critical pathways. Once completed, the model will test the SE mitigation strategies for their validity and economic feasibility. Our model will not only be able to provide safer eggs and eggs related food products but will also be instrumental in enhancing the poultry industry’s image and profitability. The proposed model will become part of our ongoing efforts on microbial risk analysis curriculum. The results of this research are being disseminated to students, professionals, and other stakeholders using traditional and non-traditional modes of learning.
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