The Demography of Establishment and Invasion: Insights from Stochastic Models. M. C. Andersen and H. M. Adams, New Mexico State University
The problems associated with assessing the risks of establishment posed by potential invasive species are often the inverse of well-studied problems in conservation biology associated with the study of threatened and endangered species. The well-developed literature on stochastic demographic models, particularly stochastic versions of the classic Leslie/Lefkovitch model, has provided many insights into important problems in conservation biology. It is to be expected that these models will provide useful tools and insights for research, risk assessment, and management related to invasive species as well. Here, we briefly review the basic formulation and properties of stochastic matrix models and review methods for their applications in a variety of situations relevant to questions of establishment and invasion. The formulation and analysis of stochastic matrix models can be very difficult. Nevertheless, stochastic demographic models can provide some relatively simple, general guidelines for risk assessment of invasive species. However, their application to specific systems requires great care, especially in formulation.
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