Integral Assessment of Bioterrorism Threat and Minimization the Effects of Terrorist Acts on Civilian Populations. K. L. Atoyev, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, Ukraine
The problem of minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population became very acute after events of September 11. In this work the new approach for early recognition of rare event risk and ranking of critical factors, which determine the threat of bioterrorism is carried out using the mathematical modelling and the theories of optimisation and catastrophes. The state of society is examined as complex interrelations in "hexagon of security" (HS), which is determined by economical, ecological, epidemiological, medico-biological, mental and social factors. All arsenal of threats, including bioterrorism, have the potential to upset intricate balance that exist within the HS by altering the above mentioned factors. The disturbance of balance within the HS is the most formidable threat, that we all must do our best to prevent, as it leads to transition from one system’s steady state (norm), to another (crisis or catastrophe). The main advantage of this approach is the determination of bioterrorist attack risk dynamics as the function of dynamic variables connected with HS. It allows to solve the following tasks: 1) identification of the weakest link and area of needed improvement and ranking countries on their weakness and vulnerability to possible bioterrorist attack and evaluation of capability to respond effectively to the threat of bioterrorism and to deal with consequences of terrorist attack; 2) identification of the weakest link under various scenarios of bioterrorist attacks and means redistribution for help to national services responsible for bioterrorist attacks prevention and liquidation of their consequences; 3) investigation of bioterrorist threat dynamics on the basis of risk assessment of bioterrorist attack and forecasting of the terrorist act consequences depending on economical, social and ecological situation; 4) determination of effective impacts (controls), minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian populations.
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