How May Prevention Best Be Accomplish? New Approach to Early Recognition of Risks and Rare Events. K. L. Atoyev, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, Ukraine
The problem of early recognition of risks and identification and ranking of critical factors, which determine rare events realisation took the central place after events of September 11, 2001. This tragedy have shown that even negligible value of risk can occur. Moreover even if the realization of rare events causes by oneself local hazard, its combination with media hypes leads to a strong multiple effect, that can cause essential damage such as public fear, undermining of public trust to regulators up to collapse of economics, depending on its state. So now we have the principle new threats for economics connected with rare event realization. One of the most distinctive features in the study of such events is difficulty in choice of adequate mathematical apparatus for their investigation. Indeed, the theory of probability cannot be correctly utilized for risk assessment in those cases, especially with the absence or incompleteness of data due to unique character of event. In this work the new approach for risk estimation of rare events is carried out using the theory of smooth functions allowing the determination of critical parameter values which describe the levels of control system intensities and reserve possibilities. The risk is estimated on a degree of the system parameter approximation of the bifurcation values, which characterise the system’s transition from one steady state (norm), to another (catastrophe). This approach allows estimation of risk as function of the quantitative characteristic of reserve possibilities of the system and its components. The efficacy of interventions (economical, social and environmental including water treatment) is determined by risk deviations, caused by ones. This is the basis for emphasizing those interventions that give most value for money. The above approach was utilized for ranking interventions that achieve prevention ecological, epidemiological, economical and bio-medical systems.
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