Global Warming: True or False?* C. O. Brittle, University of Michigan
The scientific process always produces some uncertainty. While scientists are used to dealing with this uncertainty, the public is not. While scientists speak in terms of the likelihood of specific negative consequences, the public wants definitive answers. The result is a kind of disjuncture, making it difficult for scientific information to be effectively communicated to the public. Good science must produce caveats; good communications must be concise. This paper is an attempt to examine this interplay, using the issue of global warming as an example. How does an understanding of scientific uncertainties influence the public’s opinion about global warming? How does the media explain these uncertainties? How do multiple sides of the global warming debate attempt to influence public opinion using these uncertainties? I attempt to answer these questions using four different sources of information: 1) I examine a random sample (n=150) of newspaper articles concerning global warming over a five-year period (1996-2000), with a special emphasis on the amount of scientific conflict within each article; 2) I examine public opinion about global warming over the same five-year period, using available US national opinion data; 3) I study recent major public education efforts about global warming, produced by environmental, governmental, and industry groups, with a particular emphasis on the types of scientific claims made by each; and, 4) I describe the results of a series of questions concerning global warming in the 2002 Detroit Area Study, in particular, the connections between opinions about the serious of global warming and perceived scientific consensus are examined. The results suggest a complex interaction between scientific caveats and public opinion.
*Student Travel Award.
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