Spatially Explicit Ecological Risk Assessment Approach to Modeling of Incorporated Radioactivity: Case Study for Roe Deer.* A. J. Grebenkov, I.Linkov, G. Zibold, A. A. Andrizhijevski, and V. M. Baitchorov; Joint Institute of Power Engineering and Nuclear Research, Belarus, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Institute of Zoology, Belarus, University of Applied Sciences, Weingarten, Germany
The objective of the present study is to suggest and evaluate our approach to incorporation of spatial information in ecological risk assessment. The roe deer populations foraging in the areas of Ochsenhausen Forestry, Germany contaminated by Cs-137 with specified contamination patterns have been chosen for this case study. The data on concentrations of Cs-137 in roe deer meat and mushrooms were provided by one of the authors. The simulation scenario is suggested that takes into account several principal assumptions: (i) spatial heterogeneity of contamination of forage, and (ii) roe deer movement in the directions determined by location, volume and attractiveness of local habitat and forage resources. This implies two models: Spatially Explicit Exposure Assessment Model that calculates internal exposure resulting from ingestion of contaminated feeds, and Probabilistic Receptor Migration Model that generates motivation of behaviour of a receptor while grazing. In the first model, time-dependent accumulation of contamination in receptor’s tissue is defined by the differential balance equation that takes into account forage consumption rate and excretion rate. In the second model, the velocity of migration of receptor in each cell is inversely proportional to the forage volume and habitat quality presented. The model allows depicting the migration traces for an animal grazing within habitat area. Using the data on distribution of contamination of forage in different zones, we calculated change of incorporated dose (Cs-137 concentration in roe deer body) in the course of time of observation. The results of computation were compared with the data obtained from direct measurements in Ochsenhausen Forestry and showed a good agreement with field data. This work is partially funded by the Global Environment Facility and NATO Science for Peace Programme.
*International Travel Award.
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