Analysis of Frequencies of Realization Plots and Reasons of Large Accidents at Oil-Gas Industry Enterprises. S. G. Mironyuk, IndEcoExpert Ltd, Russia
Conference topic: risk of rare and extreme events. The evaluation of accident risk for the oil - and - gas system objects has been fulfilled. The risk investigations proved that oil- and water-pipelines of the on-line types are the most dangerous in case of the environmental contamination. The frequency of accidents for the intertrade pipelines is 4,0 * 10-3 1/km/ year in Western Siberia . During the borehole drilling the maximum loss may be caused by its accidental oil gusher. The probability of the worst scenario is 10-5 1/year. It is related to rare accident according to the Russian classification of the types of consequences. The maximum tank depressurization on an oil-processing plant is the most dangerous accident. The great amount of liquated hydrocarbon gas leaves the tank. Than this air-fuel cloud blows and the fire begins. The frequency of this type of the accident is 1,6 * 10-4 1/year. Maximum and individual risk evaluated in the result of the environment simulation of the oil-processing plants is equal to 10-4 – 10-5 1/year. When all energy supplies of a system suddenly release the chain effect occurs at the adjacent industrial objects, the fire frustrates residential districts. There can be three trigger-reasons that cause the accident described above: the fire with the chain effect when all fuel reservoirs are involved in it (the realization probability approximately to zero); the submersion of an oil tank yard in the result of a dam break (the realization frequency is 5,5 * 10-9 1/year); the thoroughly planned terrorist act. It is equal to 1 * 10-7 1/year.
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