Complex Analysis of Death Risk and Socioeconomic Factors.* N. V. Sorokovikova, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; and M. P. Ratanova, State Lomonosov University, Russia
Objective. The paper deals with the analysis of health risk and health impact factors in the Oka River basin. During the last decade the health of the population in Russia has become essentially worse as demonsrated by the dramatic fall in life expectancy at birth, sharp rise in death rates, and increase in sickness and disability rates. The goal is to evaluate the negative consequences of cumulative impact from a complex of factors affecting human health, to assess the death risk and contribution of socioeconomic factors in its increase in the 1990s. The research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Researches, grant N 01-05-64662. Materials and Methods. The changes in parameters characterizing human health, ecological, economic, social, demographic, and medical service situation in 13 regions of the Oka River basin were analyzed from 1985 to 1999. Death and birth rates standardized by age were studied in 1961-2000. Relationships between impact factors and values of death risk were examined by means of correlation and factor analyses. The factor analysis for 1999 was the basis for typology of health impacts and regionalization of the basin territory according to the type of impact (or specific combinations of types) and its intensity. Finally, the increase of death risk caused by alterations in socioeconomic conditions in the 1990s was assessed. Results and Conclusion. In 1981-1987 the improvement of social situation was accompanied by a rise of birth rates and life expectancy. The close negative relations were found between risk values and some socioeconomic parameters. The typology developed provides the opportunity to identify the regions, which require immediate measures to improve socioeconomic conditions and human health state. It also makes it possible to plan, in a differentiated way, the distribution of financial resources on public health and social programs.
The research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Researches, grant n 01-05-64662.
*International Travel Award.
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