Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2002 Annual Meeting

Addressing Vulnerabilities and Uncertainties for Environmental Management. C. C. Travis, Quest Technologies

Programmatic vulnerabilities for stewardship include (1) incorrect focus, (2) no long-term commitment, (3) long-term costs in the face of uncertain and/or insufficient funding, and (4) regulations that do not reflect new science. Containment vulnerabilities include: (1) barrier degradation and (2) required maintenance, which suggests that passive systems are more desirable. Verification vulnerabilities include: (1) ability to detect system failure, (2) time to respond, (3) ability to replace controls, and (4) predictive abilities of performance modeling, which are inadequate for institutional decisions. Key uncertainties include (1) hazard control through containment performance over time; (2) environmental behavior, including migration modeling versus measurements; and (3) environmental events, including impacts on engineered systems which again suggests the need for adopting passive/ enhanced natural systems. Opportunities for improvement include: (1) an up-front commitment to federal control, which will save money and time (as sites will not require cleanup to residential use); (2) a realistic time frame for containment system design (e.g., design for 10-15 years, to be handed off after that time to the next-generation steward), which will also save money and time, given that we don’t have to and shouldn’t try to build extremely long-lasting systems, and (3) iterative improvements will allow new science and technology to be incorporated sas they will certainly be developed.


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