EPA Lists Conditions for Accepting Probabilistic Risk Analyses

By Lorraine Swift Abbott, RiskWorld Editor
E-mail to: abbott@tec-com.com.

June 25, 1997 -- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, recognizing that "probabilistic analysis techniques . . . can be viable statistical tools for analyzing variability and uncertainty in risk assessments," has established a policy that lists eight conditions under which risk assessments using probabilistic analysis techniques can be submitted to the agency for review. For human health risk assessments, the application of probabilistic techniques will be limited to exposure assessments (i.e., the techniques are not approved for dose-response evaluations). For ecological risk assessments, the techniques may be used for "all aspects including stressor and dose-response assessment." The agency points out that the "probabilistic analysis techniques do not establish or affect legal rights or obligations."

Because the Monte Carlo method is the probabilistic technique most frequently used for human health risk assessments, the agency has prepared a 33-page document describing the guiding principles for applying this method. Within the next year EPA's Risk Assessment Forum will develop illustrative case studies and will organize workshops or colloquia for selected exposure factors, and during fiscal year 1997 or 1998 the National Center for Environmental Assessment will develop a training course on probabilistic methods for risk assessors and risk managers, as well as detailed technical guidance for the quantitative analysis of variability and uncertainty.

Both the EPA policy and the Monte Carlo report are available on the Internet at the following addresses:

Policy for Use of Probabilistic Analysis in Risk Assessment at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency http://www.epa.gov/ncea/mcpolicy.htm

Guiding Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis (EPA/630/R-97/00l) http://www.epa.gov/ncea/monteabs.htm

Story posted June 25, 1997.

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