Conference on Probabilistic Methods Used in Risk Assessment Generates Global Interest
Abstracts Due in September
By Amy
Charlene Reed, RiskWorld staff
E-mail to: reed@tec-com.com.
June 11, 1997 -- The fourth international Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM 4) already is drawing global interest more than a year in advance, organizers say. The meeting, which many consider to be the premier international gathering of experts in risk and reliability assessment and management, is scheduled for September 13-18, 1998, at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York City, with abstracts of submitted papers due by September 15, 1997.
"PSAM 4 is co-sponsored by 19 cooperating organizations both in the United States and abroad, which indicates that it is of great general interest to the worldwide risk community," said Paul Amico (e-mail paul.j.amico@cpmx.saic.com ), the publicity chair for PSAM 4 and a vice president in the Energy and Environment Group at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in Reston, Virginia.
Co-sponsors, some of whom are planning sessions for the conference, include the European Union's Joint Research Center, the European Safety and Reliability Association, the Atomic Energy Society of Japan, the Society for Risk Analysis, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, among others.
The meeting will cover disciplines such as aviation, chemical processes, environmental systems, information and communication, insurance, land transport and highways, law and regulations, manufacturing, medical and health, nuclear, security and protection, space, and structures.
"The goal of the conference is to bring together experts from several technical disciplines who develop and use probabilistic methods in the design, operation, and safety of technological systems to collectively harmonize the unifying principles of the field and to advance its scientific basis," said PSAM 4's General Chairman Robert A. Bari (e-mail bari@bnl.gov ), who is the Chairman of the Department of Advanced Technology at the Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, New York.
The conference's gala event will be a banquet aboard a World War II aircraft carrier anchored on the bank of the Hudson River. The ship, which houses more than 40 historic aircraft in its hangars, is the home of the Intrepid Sea-Air-Space Museum. "We purposely won't have a keynote speaker at the banquet because we want to encourage people in different disciplines to interact with each other, which is the whole point of PSAM," Bari said. "We'll have the whole museum to ourselves, which should help create an atmosphere conducive to informal interactions."
Others involved in organizing the conference include Technical Program Chairman Ali Mosleh (e-mail: mosleh@eng.umd.edu ), a professor in the Department of Materials and Nuclear Engineering at the University of Maryland, and the assistant general chairmen, Joseph R. Fragola of the United States, Peter Kafka of Germany, and Shunsuke Kondo of Japan.
The PSAM conference first began in 1991 under the leadership of George Apostolakis (e-mail: apostola@mit.edu ) and other members of the Southern California Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis. They strove to create a forum in which analysts and practitioners in a wide range of disciplines could exchange ideas about probabilistic methods, recognizing that while methods and analytical tools varied significantly among different disciplines, many of the issues and models were common.
"Our vision was to create an international event in which researchers and practitioners from diverse disciplines and industries would meet and exchange information and ideas regarding the use of probabilistic methods in risk and reliability assessment," said Apostolakis, currently a professor of nuclear engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts. "The success of PSAM 3 in Crete, Greece, and all the interest and enthusiasm that PSAM 4 is generating confirm, once again, that that vision has become reality."
Apostolakis continues to serve as secretary of the International Association for PSAM, which is a not-for-profit California organization that handles the administrative and financial affairs of the conferences under the direction of a board of directors of 15 risk and reliability experts from around the world.
Call for Papers
PSAM 4 abstracts are due by September 15, 1997. Abstracts must be 400-600 words in length and written in English. Additionally, authors must indicate on each abstract the topic category to which the abstract most closely corresponds (see list of topics below). Send four copies of each abstract to:
Prof. Ali Mosleh
2100A Marie Mount Hall
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742 - 7531
e-mail mosleh@eng.umd.edu
The conference organizers will notify authors of acceptance or rejection by January 31, 1998, and full papers will be required for accepted abstracts by March 31, 1998.
Related Links
PSAM Web Site http://www.enre.umd.edu/IAPSAM/
Board of Directors of the International Association for PSAM http://www.enre.umd.edu/IAPSAM/board.htm
PSAM 4 Conference Information http://www.enre.umd.edu/IAPSAM/psam4.htm
Intrepid Sea-Air-Space Museum http://www.intrepid-museum.com
New York City Sight Seeing http://www.cityinsights.com/nypoints.htm
List of Topic Categories for Abstracts Submitted to PSAM 4
A. General Areas
1. Basic Principles and Theory of Risk Analysis
2. Uncertainty Analysis
3. Expert Opinion Utilization
4. Data Analysis Methods
5. Risk Assessment Computer Codes
6. Risk Assessment Standards
B. Source Modeling
1. Human Reliability
2. Systems Modeling
3. Organizational Factors
4. Environmental/External Causes
5. Probabilistic Models of Physical Processes
6. Dynamic Systems Risk and Reliability
7. Software Reliability and Safety
8. Risk Model Integration and Quantification
C. Consequence Assessment
1. Health Effects and Safety
2. Environmental Effects
3. Economic, Social, and Political Effects
D. Applications/Risk Management/Decision Making
1. Insights and Lessons from Risk Studies
2. Risk-Informed Decision Making/Risk Management
3. Risk Communication
4. Risk-Informed Design
5. On-line Operation Support
6. Precursor Studies
7. Waste Management
Information on Hotel
PSAM 4 will be held at the Grand Hyatt Hotel located on 42nd Street between Lexington Avenue and Park Avenue at Grand Central. For more information, contact the hotel at (212) 883-1234.
Story posted June 11, 1997.
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