Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

Complex Risk Analysis for Novgorodsky Region's Population. A. N. Yelokhin, Department of Risk Analysis, Insurance Company "LUKOIL", Krasnya Presnya str., b.44/2,123022, Moscow, Russia; E. A. Kozlov, 2Department of Emergency Prevention and Preparedness, Russian Ministry for Emergencies, Vatutina str., b. 1, 121357, Moscow, Russia; and O. V. Bodrikov, S. Ulianov, and V. U. Glebov, Russian Scientific Institute for Civil Defence and Emergencies, Davydkovskaya, 7, 123182, Moscow, Russia

The method of complex risk analysis for region's population is offered in this work. The following things are examined in this work as the complex indexes of risk:

The method is based on the construction of event trees, and possible measures on risk lowering are taken into consideration in this case. This method was approved during the risk assessment for Novgorodsky region's population.

Novgorodsky region is situated in the north-west European part of Russian Federation. The region's area is about 54,5 thousand kilometres. The biggest length of the territory from west to east is 385 kilometres, the smallest -- from north to south -- is 278 km.

The following accidents were examined as possible emergencies:

As the carried-out calculations showed, the death-roll on the Novgorodsky region's territory can vary from a few people to several thousands. According to these calculations, the death of three men a year is awaited. These deaths are considered to be caused by the small accidents on industrial objects (so called 'occupational injuries') and transport accidents, connected with the transporting of hazardous substances.

Simultaneous death of several thousand people is an extremely rare event for the population of the Novgorodsky region. The frequency of such event can vary from 1 10-7, 1/year, to 110-8, 1/year, and its happening can be connected only with a big accident on industrial object. For example, the accident on the chemical plant "Akron", connected with the unhermetization of vessel, containing 1000 tons of ammonium hydrate and emission of all this mass into environment or an accident on the autotransporting industrial union "Volna", with the momentary unhermetization of the vessels, containing 4000 cubic metres of liquefied propane, production of cloud, consisting of the explosive air-fuel mixture, with the following detonational regime of its explosive transformation.

You must take notice of the fact, that frequencies, varying from 10-7 to 10-8, 1 /year, are very small and satisfy the demands to industrial risks in highly developed western countries, for example, in Netherlands,

The biggest threats for Novorodsky region's territory (in the material damage field) are high waters, characterised by regularity (happen almost every year) and big material damage.

The researches, carried out on this theme, served as a basis for accepting decision of improving the regional system of acting in emergencies.


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