Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

Ecological Risk of Petroleum Ports and Pipelines Designs in Baltic Region of Russia Estimation. I. V. Lisovsky, Sant-Petersburg State Technical University, 195251 Polytechnicheskaya, 29, MVTS, Sant-Petersburg, Russia.

Department of the Marine Transport of Russian Federation has worked out Programme of increase of Russian ports capacity by year 2000 in 1.9 times. By 2010 it is planned to bring a total cargo turnover of all ports located in the Gulf of Finland up to 125 millions ton per annum. Fluid cargo (oil, petroleum products, liquefied gases, liquid chemical cargo) will amounts to about 50% of a total cargo turnover. It is proposed to construct two new petroleum ports on the coast of the Gulf of Finland: petroleum port in Batareynaya bay with aggregate capacity of 15 min tons per annum and port in the vicinity of city Primorsk intended for crude oil, petroleum products, chemical cargo and liquefied gases transhipment (cargo turnover - 45 min tons per annum). To ensure oil and petroleum products transportation from Siberia oil fields to the costs of the Gulf of Finland the proposals on creation of Baltic pipelines system has been elaborated. In the project there are envisaged competitive versions of the pipelines laying --through the territory of Karelian Isthmus to Vyborg and then on to the Finland (Porvoo) or to the Batareynaya bay (about 350 km) and then on to city Primorsk (about 60 km) by the bottom of the Gulf of Finland.

Construction of liquid cargo ports in the Gulf of Finland as well as hundreds of kilometers of oil pipelines in the region that will run in the bottom of the Gulf of Finland will lead to increase of volumes of sea transportation of oil, petroleum products, liquid bulk cargo and storage of a considerable amount of them in port depots. Thus, there is no doubt that such constructions increase risk of possibility of accidents and disasters associated with fires, and spillages of mentioned cargo that can occur in the water area of the Gulf of Finland, at the sites of ships loading and on the routes of cargo transportation to the ports. Undoubtedly such kinds of accidents and disasters will lead to the transboundary transfer of pollutants and toxins. It is evident that organization of the ecological examination of all projects in aggregate is absolutely necessary and it is the only proper way of the problem solution. In the course of the examination there should be chosen best versions of the designs; on the base of analysis of integrated indexes of ecological risk. High degree of possibility of accidents accompanied by transboundary transfer determines necessity of participation of experts from different countries of the Baltic region in such examination.


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