Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 2000 Annual Meeting

Indoor Air Pollution Risks in Rural China - A Systems Perspective. H. K. Florig, Carnegie Mellon University

Solid fuels in the form of biomass and coal supply over 95% of the household energy needs of China’s 800 million rural residents. Indoor air pollution (IAP) from solid fuel use in rural China causes up to one million premature deaths per year from various lung diseases. This health toll far exceeds that from all industrial sources of air pollution in China. In this presentation, these IAP risks are analyzed from a systems perspective to identify underlying social, economic, and cultural forces that exacerbate or alleviate the IAP problem. The most significant of these are ongoing rural economic and land reforms that have increased real per capita wealth almost five-fold in the past two decades. On the positive side, growing incomes have speeded diffusion of improved biomass cookstoves, increased per capita living space (thus reducing the proximity of family members to cookstove emissions), and induced a demographic transition that has reduced the number of children at risk of death from IAP-related pneumonia. On the negative side, added wealth has fostered adoption of small portable unvented coal stoves, increased smoking prevalence, and increased time spent indoors (e.g. watching TV), all of which lead to increased IAP exposure. Other important forces influencing IAP health risks are energy policies that limit rural supplies of clean fuels and the demise of the commune-supported rural health care system. In addition to analyzing various macro-level forces influencing IAP health risks, this presentation will describe a multi-factor risk model leading to improved estimates of the nationwide health impact of IAP in China.

Supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (SBR-9521914) and the Agency for International Development.


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