| Books
on Uncertainty Analysis |
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| |
| 2008 |
| |
|
Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty |
| by Gerd Gigerenzer; May 2008;
ISBN-10 0195328981; ISBN-13 978-0195328981 |
The director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and
Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human
Development, Berlin, examines the rationality of
individuals from the point of view of adaptation to the
real world of human behavior and interaction with the
environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior
is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This
work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire
research program.
This volume, which follows the previous collection
Adaptive Thinking:
Rationality in the Real World, collects
Gigerenzer's most recent articles, looking at how people
use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate
probability and risk and to make decisions. It includes
a newly written, substantial introduction, and the
articles have been revised and updated where
appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier
volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists,
philosophers, economists, and others who study decision
making. |
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| |
| Take the Risk: Learning to
Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk |
| by Ben Carson, M.D.; January 2008;
ISBN-10 0310259738; ISBN-13 978-0310259732 |
|
The author, an imminent pediatric neurosurgeon, shares
his own experiences of dealing with risk and provides a
four-question analysis to use for making decisions in any
situation. |
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from Amazon |
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| |
| 2006 |
| |
| Coping with Uncertainty :
Modeling and Policy Issues |
| by Kurt Marti, Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowsk,
and Georg Pflug, Editors; September 2006; ISBN 3540352589 |
| Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new
scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a
vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our
traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The
uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In
short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive
uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific
approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no
sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and
learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In
addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions,
policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough
certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more
links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are
needed, as given in this book. |
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| |
| Dealing With Uncertainties : A
Guide to Error Analysis |
| by Manfred Drosg; June 2006; ISBN 3540296069 |
| Dealing with Uncertainties proposes and
explains a new approach for the analysis of uncertainties. Firstly, it is
shown that uncertainties are the consequence of modern science rather than
of measurements. Secondly, it stresses the importance of internal
uncertainties. This perspective has the potential of dealing with the
uncertainty of a single data point and with sets of data having differing
weights. Both cases cannot be handled with external uncertainties, which
have been previously considered. This innovative monograph also fully covers
both uncorrelated and correlated uncertainties. The weakness of using
statistical weights in regression analysis is discussed. Throughout,
examples are given for correlations in data evaluations and for the feedback
of uncertainties on experiments. |
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| |
| |
| Finance and the Economics of
Uncertainty |
| by Gabrielle Demange and Guy Laroque; January
2006; ISBN 1405121386 |
| Finance and the Economics of Uncertainty
explores the growing range of economic decisions that are conducted under
uncertainty both on the personal level-with individual savings, insurance,
portfolio choices-as well as by large firms including insurance companies,
stock exchanges, and futures and derivatives assets that utilize financial
tools to facilitate the exchange of risks.Presenting the basic principles
and discussing them in a unified framework within elementary models, this
text analyzes the allocation of risk in the context of the current
literature, and emphasizes the role of information in decisions and prices.
Including end-of-chapter exercises, this book provides students with a tool
for understanding the theoretical analysis of decision-making under
uncertainty, and its applications to the world of economics and finance. |
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| 2005 |
|
| Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil
Engineering |
| by Wolfgang Fellin, Heimo Lessmann, Michael
Oberguggenberger, Robert Vieider, Editors; March 2005; ISBN 3540222464 |
|
This volume comprehensively addresses the issue of uncertainty in
civil engineering, from design to construction. Current engineering
practice often leaves uncertainty issues aside, despite the fact that
new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that
allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model
uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to take
a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise
awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a
strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure
and their construction implications, actual construction, and legal
responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for
modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a
collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction
managers who met regularly in a post-graduate seminar at the
University of Innsbruck during the past years.
|
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|
| Classic Works on the Dempster-Shafer
Theory of Belief Functions (Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing) |
| by Arthur P. Dempster, Ronald Yager , Liping
Liu, Editors; September 2005; ISBN 3540253815 |
|
This book brings together a collection of classic research papers on
the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. This book will serve
as the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning
and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including
uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making
in economics, engineering, and management. The carefully selected
contributions are grouped into seven sections, including conceptual
foundations, theoretical perspectives, theoretical extensions,
alternative interpretations, and applications to artificial
intelligence, decision-making, and statistical inferences. The book
also includes a foreword by Dempster and Shafer reflecting the
development of the theory in the last forty years, and an introduction
describing the basic elements of the theory and how each paper
contributes to the field.
|
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from Amazon |
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|
| Economic Policy Under
Uncertainty: The Role of Truth and Accountability in Policy Advice |
| by Peter Mooslechner, Helene Schuberth, and
Martin Schurz, Editors; February 2005; ISBN 1843764857 |
| This book maintains that the question of truth
and accountability has not received particular attention in the literature
on economic methodology. It goes on to argue that pragmatic theories
relate concepts of truth to the beliefs, thoughts and intentional actions
of individuals, blurring the relationship between theory and practice.
Focusing on the conditions that make it possible to consider economic
policy advice a reliable basis for action and at the same time justifiable
in a broad public discourse, the contributors address the difficulties
faced by economic policy makers when basing policy decisions on economic
advice. They avoid dualistic alternatives between truth-oriented academic
theory and economic policy practice and remove the epistemic privilege for
academic economists. The question of how economists can be made
accountable for policies made as a result of their counsel is also
examined. Exploring real-world difficulties encountered in giving and
receiving economic policy advice, this book will be of great interest to
economists who wish to reflect on the stance of their discipline,
philosophers with an interest in economic issues and economic policy
advisers considering the particularities of their subject. |
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|
| Trust, Risk, and Uncertainty |
| by Sean Watson and Anthony Moran, Editors; July
2005; ISBN 1403906998 |
| This edited collection focuses on recently
emerging debates around the themes of "risk", "trust",
"uncertainty", and "ambivalence." Where much of the
work on these themes in the social sciences has been theory based and
driven, this book combines theoretical sophistication with close to the
ground analysis and research in the fields of philosophy, education,
social policy, government, health and social care, politics and cultural
studies. |
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|
| Uncertainty and Surprise in
Complex Systems : Questions on Working with the Unexpected (Understanding
Complex Systems) |
| by Reuben R. Jr. McDaniel and Dean J. Driebe,
Editors; April 2005; ISBN 3540237739 |
|
Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and
social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise
are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the
outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical
thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a
variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The
University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore
strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides
contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the
editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya
Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is
intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well
as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and
scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues
and in the application of complexity science to physical and social
systems.
|
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|
| Uncertainty Assessment of Large
Finite Element Systems (Lecture Notes in Applied and Computational
Mechanics) |
| by Christian A. Schenk and Gerhart I. Schuëller;
July 2005; ISBN 3540253432 |
|
The treatment of uncertainties in the analysis of engineering
structures remains one of the premium challenges in modern structural
mechanics. It is only in recent years that the developments in
stochastic and deterministic computational mechanics began to be
synchronized. To foster these developments, novel computational
procedures for the uncertainty assessment of large finite element
systems are presented in this monograph. The stochastic input is
modeled by the so-called Karhunen-Loève expansion, which is
formulated in this context both for scalar and vector stochastic
processes as well as for random fields. Particularly for strongly
non-linear structures and systems the direct Monte Carlo simulation
technique has proven to be most advantageous as method of solution.
The capabilities of the developed procedures are demonstrated by
showing some practical applications.
|
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|
| 2004 |
|
| Economic Dynamics and General
Equilibrium: Time and Uncertainty |
| by Anders Borglin and Mich
Tvede; January 2004; ISBN 3540002650 |
| This book focuses on the
developments in the theory of incomplete markets and overlapping
generations economies where income transfers over time or across states
are restricted either by available assets or by the infeasibility of
contracts with unborn generations. It bridges the gap between standard
textbooks on microeconomics and more advanced expositions. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Managing Uncertainties in
Networks: A Network Approach to Problem Solving and Decision Making |
| by Johannes Franciscus,
Maria Koppenjan, and Erik-Hans Klijn; July 2004; ISBN 0415369401 |
| This text examines
developments in the area of network strategy. Differentiating itself from
other policy network approaches with a mainly research focus, this text
has a managerial orientation. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Managing Uncertainty in
Organizational Communication |
| by Michael W. Kramer; March
2004; ISBN 0805849203 |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Project Selection Under
Uncertainty: Dynamically Allocating Resources to Maximize Value
(International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 69) |
| by Stylianos Kavadias and
Christoph H. Loch; April 2004; ISBN 1402077033 |
| This book is the result of
a five-year research program on the selection of projects in New Product
Development (NPD). Choosing the New Product Development portfolio is of
critical importance in today's business environment. The NPD portfolio has
considerable strategic effect on the "middle term" success of a
business. This book takes a step in developing a theory that addresses the
need for quantitative prioritization criteria within the broader strategic
context of the R&D portfolios. Its foundation lies in mathematical
theory of resource-constrained optimization with the goal to maximize
quantitative returns. The book seeks to broaden the portfolio discussion
in two ways. First, simplified models - appropriate for the data-poor NPD
context - are developed, which attempt to illuminate the structure of the
choice problem and robust qualitative rules of thumb, rather than detailed
algorithmic decision support. Such robust rules can be applied in the
R&D environment of poor data availability. Second, the annual
portfolio review is not the only important choice in resource allocation.
In addition, the book discusses how ideas might be pre-screened as they
emerge, and how projects should be prioritized once they are funded and
ongoing. |
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|
|
| Uncertainty Analysis for
Forensic Science |
| by Patrick F. Dunn and
Raymond M. Brach; March 2004; ISBN 1930056206 |
| We live in an increasingly
complex society in which we are constantly overwhelmed by numbers and
units. However, units and measurements are not meant to confuse people but
to help them. They were developed and designed to allow for effective
communication on commercial and technical levels. Simply put, they are the
structure behind all technical accomplishments.
The purpose of this text is to introduce the reader to these elements
of Uncertainty Analysis so that they can be applied to forensics. This
challenging book covers the fundamentals of Uncertainty Analysis--a tool
used by engineers and scientists throughout the world to estimate
uncertainty.
This instructive book has been geared solely towards the many legal
professionals and forensic engineers who are unaware of Uncertainty
Analysis for Forensic Science and its potential applications in the
courtroom. Covering a wide range of topics that range from probability and
statistical variables, mathematical relationships and equations, to
sensitivity and design of experiments, this text has everything you could
possibly want. It serves to enlighten, inform and familiarize one with
these particular ideas by applying scientific and medical knowledge to
legal matters. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| 2003 |
| |
| Communicating Uncertainties in
Weather and Climate Information: A Workshop Summary |
| National Academy Press; March 2003; ISBN
0309085403 |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Independence, Additivity,
Uncertainty |
| by Karl Vind and Birgit
Grodal; January 2003; ISBN 3540416838 |
| This book deals with the
important economic problem of uncertainty. The first attempt was to
simplify and unify some results usually taught in courses in mathematical
economics. The economic interpretation of the results was representations
of preferences as sums or integrals and the decomposition of preferences
into utilities and probabilities. The book contains all the classical
results, but the main justification of the book is that the approach taken
in the earlier versions was also the proper approach in generalizing from
preferences, which were total preorders to preferences, which were not
total or transitive. The same mathematics gives representations which are
additive. It also gives decompositions where concepts of utility,
probability, and uncertainty appeared. These results are new and give a
solution to how uncertainty can be formalized. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Uncertain Science... Uncertain
World |
| by Henry N. Pollack; March
2003; ISBN 0521781884 |
| Scientific uncertainty
puzzles many people. The confusion arises when scientists have more than
one answer, and disagree among themselves. By acquainting readers with the
ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and
make use of uncertainty, and how they reach conclusions in the face of
uncertainty, this book enables them to confidently evaluate uncertainty
from their own perspectives, in terms of their experiences. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| Uncertainty in Remote Sensing
and GIS |
| by Giles M. Foody and Peter
M. Atkinson (Editors); April 2003; ISBN 0470844086 |
| This book provides general overviews on
uncertainty in remote sensing and GIS that illustrate the range of
uncertainties that may occur, in addition to describing the means of
measuring uncertainty and the impacts of uncertainty on analyses and
interpretations made. |
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from Amazon |
|
|
| 2002 |
| |
| Adaptive
Thinking: Rationality in the Real World |
| by Gerd Gigerenzer; March
2002; ISBN-10 0195153723; ISBN-13 978-0195153729 |
Where do new ideas come from? What is social
intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals?
This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to
understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and
social.
The author proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that
investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of
ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection
takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision
making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability
reign and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction.
This book is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in
psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial
intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience,
such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to
understand and communicate uncertainties and risks. |
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from Amazon |
| |
|
| Managing
Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision
Making |
| by Chris B. Chapman and Stephen Ward; October
2002; ISBN 0470847905 |
| The authors, faculty members at the University
of Southampton's School of Management, present 10 projects based on real
cases and show how to take the guesswork out of managing risk and
uncertainty by using a "constructively simple" approach to model
building and the associated decision support processes. Read the publisher's
synopsis for more information. |
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from Amazon |
| |
|
| 2001 |
| |
| Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action |
| by Carlo C. Jaeger, Ortwin Renn, Eugene A.
Rosa, and Thomas Webler; 2001; ISBN 1853837628 |
| Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty.
In this definitive volume, four of the world’s leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk – the ‘rational actor paradigm’. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. |
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from Amazon |
| |
|
| 2000 |
| |
| Choices, Values, and Frames |
| edited by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; December 2000; ISBN
0521621720 (hardcover) and 0521627494 (paperback) |
| This book presents an empirical and theoretical
challenge to classical utility theory, offering prospect theory as an
alternative framework; discusses extensions and applications to diverse
economic phenomena and to studies of consumer behavior; elaborates on
framing effects and other demonstrations that preferences are
constructed in context; and develops new approaches to the standard view
of choice-based utility. As with the classic 1982 volume, Judgment
Under Uncertainty, this volume is comprised of papers published
in diverse academic journals. The editors have written several new
chapters and a preface to provide a context for the work. |
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or paperback) |
|
| |
| |
| Probability Methods
for Cost Uncertainty Analysis - A Systems Engineering Perspective |
| by Paul Garvey; Marcel Dekker, Inc., NY; January 2000; ISBN 0824789660 |
| A textbook for a graduate or upper-level undergraduate course on applying probability methods to cost engineering and analysis
problems. Garvey, a corporate economic and decision analyst, assumes students to have a solid background in differential and
integral calculus, and hopes they have had at least introductions to probability theory and systems and cost engineering, though he develops the
important concepts of those as he goes along. Among the issues associated with cost uncertainty analysis he brings up are the correlation
between the cost of various system elements, presenting the analysis to decision makers, and using bivariate
probability distributions to capture the joint interactions between cost and schedule. Focusing on probability theory,
Garvey draws analytic
techniques from the Monte Carlo simulation method. |
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| |
| |
| Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making |
| by Glenn R. Koller; May 2000; ISBN 1584881674 |
| This book presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of
applications and offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk process or model and the
insights each can provide. |
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| |
| |
| 1999 |
| |
| Investment in Uncertainty (Applied Optimization, Vol. 21) |
| by Jaime Gil-Aluja; May 1999; ISBN 0792352963 |
| The objective of the book is to discuss and explain the problems caused by the investment process in a world that is so full of change that
it has become uncertain. For this reason the author presents a very wide range of theoretical and technical elements gathered from the
new mathematics of uncertainty, both in its numerical and non-numerical aspects. In this regard an important role is played by the theories
of fuzzy sub-sets, forgotten effects, affinities, expertons and many others that are being introduced with such success, in an attempt to
arrive at a solution to the complex problems of management and the economy. Audience: Researchers, consultants and students
interested in the application of mathematics to economics, management and investment. |
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| |
| |
| 1998 |
| |
| Experimentation and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, 2nd Ed. |
| by Hugh W. Coleman and W. Glenn Steele, Jr.;
December 1998; ISBN 0471121460 |
|
The dramatic developments in the field of experimental uncertainty analysis over the last ten years have led to sweeping changes in
applications, resulting in a new international experimental uncertainty standard. Now, in the only manual available with direct applications
to the design and analysis of engineering experiments, respected authors Hugh Coleman and Glenn Steele have thoroughly updated their
bestselling title to include the new methodologies being used by the United States and international standards committee groups. Along
with several new examples, this latest edition includes new material on:
the utilization of Uncertainty Magnification Factors (UMFs) and Uncertainty Percentage Contributions (UPCs) in the planning and early design phases of experiments;
refined procedures for accounting for the effects of correlated bias errors;
improved methods for accounting for the effects of asymmetric systematic uncertainties;
the importance of (previously ignored) correlated random errors with an example illustrating how to account for them;
uncertainties in comparative testing; uncertainties in the comparison of data and predictions (code validation);
uncertainty analysis by direct Monte Carlo simulation; and a new method to determine regression uncertainties that properly accounts for both random and systematic uncertainties.
With a step-by-step approach, engineering students as well as practicing professional engineers who analyze or design experiments will
find Experimentation and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, Second Edition to be an invaluable reference tool. |
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| |
| Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Studies in Risk and Uncertainty, 12) |
| by Haim Levy and Myles Robinson; January 1998; ISBN 0792382609 |
|
| This book is devoted to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers three basic approaches to this process: (a) the stochastic dominance approach;
(b) the mean-variance approach; and (c) the non-expected utility approach, focusing on prospect theory and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory. These approaches are discussed and compared in this book. In addition, this
volume examines cases in which stochastic dominance rules coincide with the mean-variance rule and cases in which contradictions
between these two approaches may occur. It then discusses the relationship between stochastic dominance rules and prospect theory,
and establishes a new investment decision rule which combines the two and which we call prospect stochastic dominance. Although all
three approaches are discussed, most of the book is devoted to the stochastic dominance paradigm. This book is intended for Ph.D
students, advanced MBA students specializing in finance, and advanced MA economics students interested in the economics of
uncertainty. The book can be used as a supplementary book in post-graduate courses on portfolio selection and investment
decision-making under uncertainty. |
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| |
| Uncertainty Analysis in Ecological Risk Assessment |
| by William H. Warren-Hicks (Editor) and Dwayne R.J. Moore;
October 1998, ISBN 1880611244 |
|
| This book presents a consensus from a SETAC Pellston Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis in Ecological Risk Assessment held in Pellston, Michigan. The
workshop objectives were to improve the understanding of uncertainty analysis within the ecological risk assessment framework, to address
the appropriate use of specific methods for estimating and expressing uncertainty in all facets of a risk analysis, and to disseminate methods
and procedures to enhance communication of the results of uncertainty analysis to decision- makers and the public. These proceedings fulfill
those objectives. |
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| |
| |
| 1997 |
| |
| Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering |
| by Bilal M. Ayyub (Editor); December 1997; ISBN 0849331080 |
|
Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling
and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include
neural networks, genetic algorithms, numerical modeling, fuzzy sets and operations,
reliability and risk analysis, systems control, and
uncertainty in probability estimates. This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general
scientists, and students. |
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| |
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| 1994 |
| |
| Risk and Uncertainty in Economics : Essays in Honour of James L. Ford |
| by David G. Dickinson (Editor), Michael J. Driscoll, Somnath Sen
(Editor); December 1994; ISBN 1852787368 |
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| |
| |
| 1992 |
| |
| Uncertainty : A Guide to Dealing With Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and
Policy Analysis |
| by M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion (Contributor); October 1992, ISBN 0521427444 |
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| |
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| 1989 |
| |
| Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty: An Introduction to the Analysis of Decision Making |
| by Bruce F. Baird; April 1989; ISBN 0471858919 |
|
| The book describes how to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical
techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to
easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in
the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises. |
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| |
| |
| 1982 |
| |
|
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases |
| edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky; April 1982;
Cambridge University Press; ISBN 0521284147 |
| The thirty-five chapters in this book--half of which
are edited versions of classic articles and the other half are written for
this book--describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they
produce, not only in laboratory experiments but also in important social,
medical, and political situations. |
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|
