Source: RISK newsletter,
Fourth Quarter 1995, published by the Society for Risk Analysis
The growing popularity and prominence of risk analysis further
accentuates the need for providing our Society for Risk Analysis
membership and the professional community at large with access to
experts in the various fields of risk analysis. This year, SRA is
offering five workshops at the annual meeting that transcend
diverse topics and span the expertise of several
disciplines.--Yacov Y. Haimes, Chair, SRA Meetings and Workshops
Committee
The 1995 SRA Annual Meeting in Honolulu will begin on Sunday, December 4, at 8:00 a.m. with five workshops. Preregistration fees are $200--$250 (full day) and $100 (half day).
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Applications in Hazard Assessment and Management (full day), organized by Srinivas Emani, Clark University. The problems of hazardous waste site characterization, surface and groundwater contamination analysis, noxious facility siting, and assessing the social and economic impacts of natural hazards have all applied Geographic Information Systems technology. This workshop will introduce GIS applications in hazard assessment and management by describing the basic concepts of GIS and illustrating its use through case studies on hazardous waste site characterization and facility siting. It will also demonstrate emerging tools in GIS to facilitate public participation in risk management.
Quantitative Techniques for Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Exposure and Risk Assessment (half day), organized by H. Christopher Frey, North Carolina State University, and David E. Burmaster, Alceon Corporation. The workshop will offer a tutorial on practical methods for dealing with variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk assessment. In traditional approaches to probabilistic analysis, distributions for both variable and uncertain inputs are often propagated through an exposure and risk model in the same dimension of uncertainty. The model output thus represents a hybrid distribution which contains some combination of true variability and uncertainty reflecting a lack of knowledge. Such a distribution can lead to erroneous inferences if the result is misinterpreted. This workshop will seek to improve understanding of the situations in which a disaggregated treatment of variability and uncertainty is appropriate and present practical methods for dealing with related issues.
Risk Communication and Public Involvement (full day), organized by Steven C. Lewis, Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc., and Alvin Chun and Arnold Den, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In dealing with publicly charged environmental health issues such as land use proposals and the cleanup of a contaminated site, the critical issues of gaining public understanding and public acceptance are often overlooked. This workshop will provide practical tools for understanding and addressing concerned communities or angry citizens and will give participants some practice in planning for effective public communication and participation. It will include actual case studies, video examples, and facilitated discussions.
Risk of Extreme Events (half day), organized by Yacov Y. Haimes and James H. Lambert, University of Virginia. In risk assessment, extreme and catastrophic events are often underestimated in comparison with less consequential events. Risk managers and decision makers often focus on the risk associated with a specific case instead of the likelihood of average outcomes which may result from various risk situations. As a result, the expected value of risk is not only inadequate but also can lead to fallacious results and interpretations if it is used as the sole risk index. This workshop will show how using conditional expectation to modify this approach is better for assessing the risk of extreme and catastrophic events. It will focus on the importance of addressing extreme and catastrophic events explicitly and within the overall risk-based decision-making process, and will include a hands-on application of extreme-event analysis.
Uncertainty Propagation with Interval Analysis and Fuzzy
Arithmetic (full day), organized by Scott D. Ferson,
Applied Biomathematics. Interval analysis and fuzzy
arithmetic for propagating uncertainty are useful even when data
are too sparse for other uncertainty projection methods and for
analyzing uncertainty of all kinds, no matter what its nature or
source. Interval analysis underlies any reasonable conception of
worst case analysis or theoretical upper bound estimates and can
also provide an often simple check on the results of a full-blown
probabilistic risk analysis. This workshop will review the use of
interval analysis and fuzzy arithmetic for propagating
uncertainty through mathematical calculations, including some
important subtle details in using the methods that are commonly
overlooked in risk analysis and can lead to seriously erroneous
conclusions.